Machine learning for the new age of managing capital by trading commodities futures

Overview

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The starting point

In late 2013, TerraManta founding team began to observe that the increasing geo political volatility began to influence the commodity markets in an unprecedented manner.  The human analysts could no longer reliably forecast commodity prices, especially crude oil futures.   We decided to apply machine learning technology to one of the most difficult challenges:  create a self-learning system which will perform better than a team of human analysts.  

1

The first validation milestone - early 2016

During the 18 months preceding January 2016, crude oil futures (WTI front month contract) decreased from $110 / barrel to $28 / per barrel.   The US lifted a 40-year ban on crude oil exports.  Crude oil markets will never be the same.   TerraManta software correctly forecasted WTI front month contract reaching $28 / barrel by mid January 2016.

TM for Crude Oil_RE_WTI Forecast_201601_07Jan16_15D $33pb.png

2

The second validation milestone - April 2020

In early April 2020, TerraManta software forecasted that WTI front month contract will be negative in late April.  Then the same forecast was generated two more times.  On April 20, WTI front month contract for delivery in May closed at minus $37.  TerraManta began to trade in a paper trading using a simple and liquid strategy based on weekly US crude oil inventory fluctuations.   The fund generates 12% returns on an annualized basis (limited by available computing power).

TM for Crude Oil_RE_WTI Forecast_202004_09Apr20_7D $18pn ACTIVE NEG as of 22Apr20.png

3

The third validation milestone - February 2022

TerraManta software performs motivational analysis of oil producing and consuming nations.  The probability that Russia would invade Ukraine was near 100% as suggested by TerraManta software.   Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022 sending crude oil oil prices to new highs, creating a global shortage of wheat, and transforming the natural gas markets in Europe.

TM for Crude Oil_RE_WTI Forecast_202112_23Dec21_4D $80pb FINAL.png
Abstract Futuristic Background

Join us to transform how assets are managed

TerraManta is currently raising both equity capital and trading capital.   The team welcomes serious inquiries from accredited and institutional investors.